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国际能源新变局,煤市淡季调整有限

本文作者:新潮 2026-06-13 22:24:33
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Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz will be moving to unpaid leave as they await trial for allegedly rigging pitches, Major League Baseball announced Friday.

The relievers were originally placed on paid non-disciplinary leave when they were first investigated over the summer.

"This agreement is not an admission of any wrongdoing by Clase or Ortiz. MLB has been closely monitoring the matter since alerting federal law enforcement at the outset of its investigation and will have no further comment until its investigation has been completed," MLB said, adding the shift came through an agreement between the league and the players' association.

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Emmanuel Clase in a split photo with Luis Ortiz

Emmanuel Clase, left, and Luis Ortiz, were indicted in a federal gambling probe Nov. 9, 2025. (Imagn)

Clase is accused of throwing suspicious pitches to benefit those who placed wagers on him in at least 48 games, according to ESPN. The initial indictment filed in November accused Clase of rigging pitches in specific games between May 2023 and June 2025.

In one instance, the indictment alleges, Clase used his phone in the middle of a game to coordinate with a bettor on a pitch he would throw.

Clase pleaded not guiltyto charges he took bribes to help gamblers win bets on his pitches. He was released on $600,000 bond, surrendered his passport and was ordered to limit his travel to New York and Ohio, refrain from gambling and submit to GPS monitoring.

Bettors allegedly won $400,000 from betting platforms on pitches thrown by Clase between 2023 and 2025. Ortiz allegedly joined the scheme in June 2025.

Sketch of Emmanuel Clase de la Cruz in court for sports betting scandal.

MLB player Emmanuel Clase in federal court in Brooklyn, N.Y., Nov. 13, 2025. Clase faces charges of wire fraud conspiracy, honest services wire fraud conspiracy, conspiracy to influence sporting contests by bribery and money laundering conspiracy. (Christine Cornell)

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The indictment announcement came weeks after three NBA figures were swept up in an FBI operation involving alleged illegal gambling. Chauncey Billups, Terry Rozier and Damon Jones were among more than two dozen arrested in the scheme.

Clase turned himself into arguably the game's best closer, pitching to a 1.21 ERA in his last full season in 2024, which was good for a third-place finish in the American League Cy Young Award vote. His 2025 ERA was 3.80 by the time he was investigated. Ortiz boasts a lifetime 4.36 ERA, with his best season also coming in 2024 with a 3.32 ERA.

Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz

Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz remain on leave amid a gambling probe. (David Dermer and Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn)

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Clase inked a five-year, $20 million deal just before opening day in 2022, a few months after finishing fifth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Ortiz was making the veteran minimum of $782,600 last season because he was not yet arbitration eligible.

Fox News' Ryan Gaydos and Jackson Thompson contributed to this report.

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

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若卡塔尔这一全球第二大LNG出口国的供应中断持续,亚洲将首当其冲——其80%的LNG出口流向亚洲。印度、韩国、日本和中国台湾对中东LNG资源依赖程度较高,其中日本、韩国和中国台湾的天然气发电量占总发电量的30%–40%。若冲突短期内无法平息,煤电作为可快速上量的替代电源,将显著增加对煤炭的需求,以弥补潜在电力缺口。

3月2日,洲际交易所(ICE)纽卡斯尔动力煤4月合约上涨8.61%,3日再次上涨7.23%,收于138美元/吨,为2024年12月以来最高值,上涨预期明显增强。

尽管如此,市场中有声音认为本轮上涨难以复刻2022年俄乌冲突期间的行情。与2022年相比,当前亚洲两大煤炭进口国——中国和印度——均已建立起更强的国内供应缓冲。中国年煤炭产量稳定在48亿吨以上,具备灵活调控产能与进口节奏的能力;印度亦持续推进Coal India及其他矿企增产,长期目标是降低对外依存。加之欧洲煤电已结构性萎缩,市场情绪高涨与谨慎并存,而非恐慌。3月4日,纽卡斯尔动力煤期货价格已有回落迹象。

二、国内市场抗冲击能力强,前期上涨动能有所衰减

尽管国际煤价大幅上行,中国煤炭市场表现出较强独立性,对中东冲突事件的反应较为平稳。春节前后,受多重因素影响,港口和坑口煤价曾经历一波明显上涨:

印尼煤产量和出口量缩减预期;

北方港口库存明显低于往年同期;

主产地煤矿的生产尚待恢复恢复;

终端日耗有回升空间。

然而,进入本周,市场情绪明显降温,上涨趋势趋于停滞。

(1)主产地正常复产,港口调入量回升

主产地已有序复产,港口日调入量回升至200万吨高位;大秦铁路输送量本周首次回到120万吨/天的满发水平。北方港口库存连续多日回升,总量重回2500万吨以上。

(2)终端库存处于高位,淡季临近抑制采购意愿

根据CCTD高频监测数据,截至3月2日,沿海八省动力煤终端用户库存较去年同期偏高约7%,内陆十七省偏高约8%。尽管3月工业企业复工将带动日耗回升,但气温逐步升高,4–5月将进入传统电煤淡季,电厂对当前高位煤价接受度不高,需求低迷。

(3)贸易商集中出货,价格开始松动

随着前期煤价涨幅扩大,越来越多贸易商选择在淡季前出货兑现利润,市场报价出现松动。主产地方面,本周起主产地下调价格的煤矿数量有所增多。

综合来看,港口库存回升、煤价已实现可观涨幅、电厂库存充裕、季节性需求转弱等因素已主导国内煤价走势。CCTD环渤海动力煤现货参考价连续两日持平,上行趋势告一段落。

三、煤化工或成结构性支撑点

虽然国内发电领域受中东能源扰动影响有限,但煤化工板块可能获得外部支撑。据海关数据,2025年我国自中东地区进口甲醇约980万吨,占国内甲醇贸易量超过30%。

若伊朗气头化工品出口因冲突持续受限,或将推高中国华东地区甲醇价格,并进一步加剧2026年上半年北半球春耕期间的国际尿素供应缺口,间接提振国内煤化工用煤需求。根据CCTD监测数据,中国化工行业耗煤量保持明显增长,在截至2月27日的当周内,样本化工企业耗煤量同比增加12%,为同期历史最高。

四、结论

尽管目前处于传统需求淡季前夕,但主要动力煤品种价格已明显高于去年同期水平。

截至2026年3月4日,CCTD环渤海动力煤现货参考价显示,4500大卡、5000大卡和5500大卡动力煤现货价格分别为585元/吨、675元/吨和753元/吨,同比分别上涨11%、12%和8%。

与此同时,北方港口库存虽近期连续回升,但总量仍明显低于去年同期,供需局面由去年同期的明显供过于求转为略偏宽松,叠加当前国际煤炭价格因中东地缘冲突而获得强劲支撑,进口煤补充作用减弱,4–5月电煤传统淡季,市场表现仍有望好于去年同期,煤炭价格回调幅度预计有限。



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